In the UK, millions of Britons (and expat South Africans) are glued to their screens. Halfway round the world on the tip of Africa, millions others join in. Everyone holds their breath. The ref blows his whistle. For eighty minutes these men give their all while we sit on the edge of our seats. Then the final whistle goes, and it is all over.

South Africa have lost the final. England are awarded the Webb Ellis Trophy for 2011, snatching victory from the reigning champions in green and gold.

OK, so the heading of this blog is deliberately misleading and provocative. But I’ve got your attention now, and what I have to say is important.

Even if we do win the World Cup on Saturday — and I think we will — we’re still likely to lose it in 2011. Let me explain …

Once the tournament is over and messages of congratulations from every opportunist member of Parliament and government have been dispatched simultaneously to the team and the media, the dust will settle. And Jake White, the deserving hero of the tournament, will be scanning the Careers section of the Sunday Times looking for a new job.

We’ll then enter a new era of South African rugby. Politicians and administrators, increasingly frustrated with a lack of transformation in the game, will turn up the heat, impose more and more restrictions on team selection and try and fast-track transformation at a level of the game where it simply will not work.

Don’t get me wrong — I also think that transformation in the sport has been too slow. There are one or two black stars in the Bok team but it is inexcusable and embarrassing to us as a nation that, today, 17 years after we had the first taste of freedom and 13 years after our first elections, the team does not feature more black players. And its not an issue of window dressing — the team should feature black players who deserve to be there because, had we been serious about transformation over the last 17 years, we would have groomed plenty of young talent who could today hold their own on the world stage. But we have failed to do so.

The youngest member of the team is Francois Steyn, and he is a phenomenon. He was two and a half years old when Nelson Mandela was released from prison. Where are all the other kids who were born in 1987? Why was there no talent scouting for young black talent at the time when Francois and his peers were first picking up a rugby ball at Grey College in 2000, six years after our first election? Who should have been doing that scouting? The answer is simple — those charged by the minister of sport with transforming and leading the game … the official structures, provinces and national body.

The fact is that the provincial rugby unions and South African Rugby Union (Saru) have failed dismally to produce a development programme that makes a difference. Had they done so, we’d be seeing a difference in the national team. So today, embarrassed at their lack of progress, they look for scapegoats. And they escalate transformation to the highest level of the game where inexperienced and badly coached players of all races will quite simply get thumped, demoralised and cast aside, regardless of their potential. And where, for political expediency, they can say the word “quota” and grab a few headlines.

The most recent financial statements available on Saru’s website are from 2005. In that year they generated income of R355-million, mostly from sponsorships and the sale of TV rights. They spent 9% of their income, or R32-million, on “development”. Fair enough — that’s a whack of cash and should go a long way. Except it hasn’t. The team is still largely white. Incidentally they also spent R19,4-million on sponsorship commissions. I’m not saying anything, just pointing it out.

South African rugby fans want the best team to take the field so that we can win Tests and the World Cup. We don’t care what colour the players are — just look at how Bryan Habana has become Loftus’ golden child, embraced by even the most hardened Blue Bulls supporter. It’s not about the colour of a player’s skin. It’s the colour of the jersey that counts. So we’ll shout and scream and burst several blood vessels along the way. It’s our job to get behind them — it’s what fans do.

And the national coach wants his team to win. Jake White has picked the best possible squad to take to France (oh just shut up Luke Watson fans, we’ve heard you), and will likely succeed because of it. Had he been given a pool of equally talented black players who had been groomed as long as the white players had been, and exposed to top coaching and first class competition, he would have taken them. It’s his job to pick the best team from what’s available — it’s what coaches do.

But you don’t just matriculate and get into the national team. You play club rugby, you turn out for your province. That’s where you get exposure to fierce competition, proper coaching and mentoring by more experienced players. The fact that we have so few players of colour in the national team is not Jake’s fault, nor is it the fans’ fault. It is because talented youngsters from disadvantaged backgrounds aren’t getting spotted, sent off to Saru funded academies and coached by the best the country has to offer. Saru is to blame. It’s their job to grow the game. And they’re not doing it.

So let’s enjoy the euphoria if we win on Saturday night. And let’s share the pain if we don’t. Either way, our team did us proud. But if Saru insists on fulfilling its development mandate on national level, ignoring transformation and change where it really counts and where it is actually meaningful, then don’t expect to feel the same way in four years time.

Here’s an example of the nuttiness that shows just how ridiculous the whole thing is getting:

(Click on the image below for the full version)

The 2010 World Cup in South Africa has become overhyped to the point where ordinary South Africans are being duped and are headed for financial disaster.

Let me say, though, to the 2010 sceptics who are now popping the champagne at the thought of having converted another to their cause: sorry to piss on your party. I think South Africa deserves to host the World Cup. And I’ll think we’ll do a fine job hosting it. I think the stadiums will be ready, a plan will be made about crime, spectators and tourists will be moved around the country quickly and efficiently and I think that all South Africans will rise to the challenge to make the experience an awesome one for everyone. Because we’re a great, vibrant, entrepreneurial nation.

But then July 12 2010 will come along. It is the day after the final. Brazil will pack up their trophy and head home, the English fans will wonder why it all went wrong in the group stages and will make themselves feel better by sacking and publicly humiliating their coach, the Aussies will wonder why they even bothered, and everyone else will not have noticed that they had. And South Africa will be brought back down to Earth, not with a bump, but with a crash.

The next edition of the Mail & Guardian will have a disturbing lead story, headlined “The World Cup passed us by”. It will focus on a poor family who, believing the hype and Fifa-stoked predictions of boom and prosperity for all, invested their life savings in a pile of T-shirts that, at double the price, were going to be flogged to passing spectators at traffic lights. The proceeds were going to feed the family for a year and send their eldest daughter to university so she could become a doctor and help lift the family out of poverty.

Instead, their sales were thwarted when the Fifa police confiscated half their stock because they weren’t official merchandise; the other half is gathering dust in their front room. Because of the freshly brokered deal between the SABC and SuperSport the family were able to watch the game, which made them happy, but on screen they saw tens of thousands of fans wearing T-shirts manufactured in China, the profits of which will find their way off to make some rich person richer and to fund Mr Blatter’s new yacht.

Others in the county tell a similar story. Family-run B&Bs will close down as tourism tails off and the owners can’t keep up with the increased bond repayments they face after building on an extra 10 rooms, and Joshua Doore will be repossessing the extra furniture they bought on credit and can no longer afford and no longer need.

So where does it all go wrong? It will all be traced back to 2006 when the World Cup 2010 operation kicked into gear. A boom is being promised to everyone by everyone. And South Africans are swallowing it. And so are our neighbours. Zimbabwe is going to invest billions of dollars in fancy game lodges to attract some of the tourists and, for the month of the World Cup and possibly a week or two afterwards, it will operate at 100% capacity. It will then empty out and things will return to normal (whatever “normal” is in Zimbabwe in three years’ time).

Here’s a cup of cold water. Pour it where you like. According to Tourism South Africa, in June 2007 we had 629 817 foreign visitors legally come through our airports and ports (not including those running across the border we share with the regime of Mad Bob). A total of 456 875 of those came from countries directly adjacent to ours (Lesotho, Swaziland, Botswana, Namibia, Zimbabwe and Mozambique). The remaining 172 942 came from the rest of Africa, Europe, Asia, the Americas and elsewhere.

Marthinus van Schalkwyk gave a talk in 2004 and estimated that the World Cup would bring an additional 400 000 people to our shores. Great, that’s a lot of people. And they’ll all need somewhere to sleep, something to eat, something to do when they’re not watching football and will have pocketloads of dollars and euros to spend on things to take home. Our economy will boom, of that there is no doubt.

But to service that number of people adequately, ordinary South Africans are going to stretch themselves financially and, blinded by promises of great returns, are going to get themselves into huge debt. And once the crowds have gone, they’re going to have no way of servicing that debt. We’re not going to be able to sustain an extra 400 000 people a month — that would require a 66% increase on current tourism levels. It’s simply not going to happen.

Some statistics now report that, a year after the 2006 World Cup, tourism to Germany has grown by just 2%. Even if we vastly improve on that and can grow it by 20%, that’s still only an extra 120 000-odd people a month. Which leaves 280 000 empty beds. And those beds will be in the B&Bs and guesthouses because the new five-star hotels have the reputation and marketing power to sustain themselves through the drop. A total of 280 000 restaurant seats will be empty. And 280 000 fewer people will be coming through our great new flashy airports.

So here’s my question to those who are punting the Fifa-hyped-view: Shouldn’t you take a deep breath and ask whether you are acting responsibly? When you talk of “boom”, give people direction. Teach them how to access responsible credit and draw up a business plan. Show them how to do cash flows and projections. And how to be realistic. Avoid rhetoric and hype. Be real. Because, after 2010 has come and gone, there are going to be many angry people out there, and they’ll be trawling through the speeches, press statements and websites that are being published today to find someone to blame.

For the record and to cover my own back, then, let me say it again: be careful. The emperor is wearing no clothes.